A Cooling Market: What Happens When Both Sides Step Away?

The U.S. housing market has lost about 14,000 home sellers over the past two months, with the total number of sellers falling to 1.95 million in July from a peak of 1.96 million in May. This marks the first decline since July 2023, when the supply of homes for sale bottomed out near a historic low as rising mortgage rates made homeowners reluctant to sell.  

• There are an estimated 1.43 million homebuyers in the U.S. housing market—the lowest level in records dating back to 2013 aside from the start of the pandemic.

• That’s making sellers skittish; the number of sellers has dipped by roughly 14,000 since May, falling for the first time in two years.

• Still, there are 36% more sellers than buyers—the largest gap in records dating back to 2013. That means buyers hold the cards in most markets, especially Texas and Florida. There are only five remaining seller’s markets.

• The good news? Mortgage rates have been falling recently, which could bring some buyers and sellers back to the market.

Still, sellers outnumber buyers by the widest margin in records dating back to 2013; there were an estimated 1.43 million homebuyers in the housing market in July—the lowest level on record aside from the onset of the pandemic, when the housing market ground to a halt.

📊 Market Snapshot:

Redfin estimates buyer activity using proprietary data on home tours and sales timelines, while seller numbers reflect active MLS listings. These figures are seasonally adjusted and subject to revision.

Until recently, seller activity was rising—driven by easing mortgage-rate lock-in and slow sales. But now, sellers are retreating too, spooked by stagnant listings and falling offers. As Redfin’s Asad Khan puts it: “Sellers are spooked because buyers are spooked.”

With fewer listings, inventory is dipping again—nudging prices upward. July’s median sale price hit $434,189, up 1.4% YoY, marking the highest July on record.

It’s the Most Buyer-Friendly Market in Years…If You Can Afford to Buy

There are 36.3% more sellers in the market than buyers (or 518,801 more, to be exact)—the largest gap in records dating back to 2013. In other words, it’s a buyer’s market—at least nationally—and has been for the past 15 months.

We define a market where there are over 10% more sellers than buyers as a buyer’s market and a market where there are over 10% fewer sellers than buyers as a seller’s market. A market where the gap is plus or minus 10% is considered a balanced market. 

“We’re likely in the most buyer-friendly housing market since the 2008 financial crisis,” Khan said. “Back then, inventory piled up as foreclosures surged, and demand was weak, meaning buyers had negotiating power. We’re not headed for another 2008, though; many of today’s homeowners have built substantial equity thanks to the recent surge in home values, and today’s borrowers must meet stricter lending standards. Plus, there are more options for avoiding foreclosure if a homeowner is at risk of defaulting, such as loan modification.” 

Of course, it’s only a buyer’s market for those who can afford to buy. Many Americans have been priced out of the housing market altogether in recent years—mortgage rates are more than double their pandemic low, and home prices at a record high for this time of year. The good news is that mortgage rates have dropped in recent weeks, which could bring some buyers off of the sidelines.

Miami and Fort Lauderdale Are the Strongest Buyer’s Markets, With Over Twice as Many Sellers as Buyers

In Miami, there are an estimated 21,637 home sellers and 8,293 homebuyers. That means there are 160.9% more sellers than buyers—the largest imbalance among the 50 most populous U.S. metropolitan areas. It’s followed by Fort Lauderdale, FL (151.2% more sellers than buyers), Austin, TX (123.8%), West Palm Beach, FL (123.4%) and San Antonio (113.1%).

Overall, 35 of the 50 most populous metros are buyer’s markets, 10 are balanced markets and five are seller’s markets. The buyer’s markets are concentrated in the Sun Belt and on the West Coast, while balanced markets and seller’s markets skew more toward the Midwest and East Coast. 

📉 San Antonio’s housing market is firmly in buyer territory.

Buyers are cautious, empowered, and asking for everything. Sellers, still anchored to 2021 expectations, are struggling to adapt—some are accepting investor offers, others considering renting instead of selling. But even the rental market is sluggish.

🏘️ Pandemic-era demand in the Sun Belt led to a surge in new builds, many of which aren’t listed in the MLS—making inventory appear lower than it is. Sellers now face stiff competition from builders offering major incentives.

🌪️ In Florida, rising insurance costs and natural disasters are pushing homeowners out. West Palm Beach saw a 3.5% price drop in July, the steepest in the nation. Austin followed with a 3.3% decline.

📊 Across 35 buyer’s markets, prices were nearly flat (+0.5%) compared to a 5.1% rise in seller’s markets. 🔑 Success today means pricing below recent comps, staying patient, and having a backup plan.

Newark and Nassau County Are the Strongest Seller’s Markets, With About Half as Many Sellers as Buyers

Newark, NJ is the strongest seller’s market, with an estimated 5,591 sellers and 11,654 buyers—or 52% fewer sellers than buyers. The other four seller’s markets are Nassau County, NY (40.5% fewer sellers than buyers), Montgomery County, PA (36.1% fewer), New Brunswick, NJ (22.2% fewer) and Minneapolis (12.5% fewer).

New construction can have a significant influence on whether negotiating power lies with buyers or sellers because it impacts the balance of supply and demand. The South issues the most building permits, followed by the West, the Midwest and the Northeast. As mentioned earlier, many of the nation’s buyer’s markets are in the South, while the seller’s markets are all in the Northeast or Midwest. 

San Antonio and Virginia Beach Have Shifted Most Toward Buyer’s Markets in Recent Months

San Antonio has 113.1% more sellers than buyers, up from 89.4% in April, when we last conducted this analysis. That 23.7-percentage-point gain is the largest among the 50 most populous metros. Next come Virginia Beach, VA (+19.2 ppts to 21.5%), Pittsburgh (+18.5 ppts to 32%), Denver (+16.1 ppts to 61.2%) and Charlotte, NC (+14.7 ppts to 80%). 

Source: REDFIN - THANK YOU FOR PROVIDING THIS IMPORTANT INSIGHT!!